More should be done to help migrant workers settle in cities to address hidden challenges in rural areas

Over the past few years, the aging of the population has become increasingly evident. China's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age has been lower than the so-called substitution level of 2.1 since the 1990s, which means the country's low fertility rate has existed for over three decades. Data of the seventh National Population Census have indicated some noteworthy structural problems. The share of the age groups of over-60 and over-65 in the rural population were 23.81 percent and 17.72 percent, respectively, 7.99 percentage points, and 6.61 percentage points higher respectively than those in urban areas. A larger share of seniors in rural areas is not in line with the general law of population distribution, indicating a structural distortion between urban and rural population aging.

For a long period of time, due to the urban-rural dual structure, in particular in relation to hukou (the household registration system), housing and social security, it has been difficult for migrant workers to become real city dwellers and so returning to their hometowns to live out their lives in retirement has become the only choice for most of them. This problem has caused an intergenerational polarization of rural hukou holders, with more and more elderly people living in rural areas while the young work in cities. Such phenomenon has resulted in the following hidden challenges.

First, with the absence of high-quality nursing institutions for the elderly in most villages and grownup children working in cities, most rural seniors have to care for themselves.

Second, if the current trend continues, it will place an unbearable burden on Chinese rural areas. According to the 2020 Migrant Workers Monitoring Survey Report, that year, the total number of migrant workers nationwide was 285.6 million, the average age of migrant workers in China was 41.4, and over one-third of them were aged 50 or older. This means that in the coming decade, around 100 million migrant workers will approach their retirement age. If the current trend of moving back to hometowns after retirement is not changed, such a massive population influx will bring tremendous pressure in providing for the elderly in rural areas.

Third, the role of rural seniors in boosting agricultural production should not be overestimated. As more and more agricultural production is undertaken by professional farmers, rural seniors can only keep an eye on the production or do some accounting, they have little role to play in boosting agricultural production.

Fourth, against the backdrop of the continued aging of the population, expanding the group of middle-income seniors is an important move in the country's goal of tapping the potential of domestic consumption.
However, there are some new trends in China's urban-rural population distribution that point to a change to the structural distortion of urban-rural population aging.

First, the institutional barriers for household registration in urban areas are being removed at a quicker pace as the hukou reform accelerates, especially following the announcement by the central authorities that they will help at least 100 million of the rural population settle down in towns and cities.
Second, the post-1980s rural migrant workers are inclined to become real city dwellers after leaving their hometowns.

According to my survey over the past two years, rural migrant workers usually spent more than 11 months of a year living in cities, over 80 percent of them wish to settle down in cities and over half of them said they will be materially prepared to settle down in cities within the next five years.

Third, the larger share of older population in rural areas than in urban areas is a result of migrant workers unable to settle down in cities over the past decades. Therefore, to solve the structural distortion between urban and rural population aging, China needs to adopt more measures than just providing better old-age care for the elderly, with the ultimate solution of making people that relocate from rural to urban areas real city dwellers.

First, small- and medium-sized cities should ease their hukou restrictions for migrant workers to encourage them to settle down. Each locality and city (excluding the megacities) should actively promote a hukou system based on habitual residence. Even if the conditions are not ripe for them to settle in some cities, migrant workers should be granted the same public benefits including medical insurance, social insurance and children's education as local residents.

Second, the government should actively explore new ways to solve the housing problem for new residents to eliminate the barriers confronting population mobility, such as encouraging renting before owning, offering interest subsidy, granting farmer-built housing the same status as urban housing in the housing market, and setting up property development cooperatives.

Third, the labor participation ratio of the younger elderly should be enhanced. With the increasing degree of education and improved working conditions, there are more and more jobs suitable for the elderly. The government should help some of the newly retired get re-employed by further improving working conditions and strengthening career training.

According to the 2020 Migrant Workers Monitoring Survey Report, the total number of migrant workers nationwide last year dropped by 5.17 million from 2019, the first decline since 2008 when the first such survey was carried out. From this perspective, enhancing the labor participation ratio of the newly retired is of significance to address the shortage of labor. Such a measure must be based on giving migrant workers urban residence status.

Fourth, another obstacle preventing migrant workers from settling down in cities is that rural migrant workers can hardly cash in on their rural land rights and interests under the current land system. In the next step, China should further enable migrant workers the right to exit to relocate from rural to urban areas.

The author is an associate research fellow with the Institute of Political Science at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.