The number of marriage registrations has been declining in China since 2013. The only exception was 2023, which witnessed the post-pandemic "compensatory marriage wave". But in the very next year, that is, in 2024, the number of marriage registrations touched a new low, with only 6.1 million couples tying the knot.

The decline in the number of marriage registrations is a complex issue with multiple contributing factors. But it is primarily driven by demographic changes, the population's age structure in particular. Due to the family planning measures before 2015 — when all couples were allowed to have two children — the number of people aged 20-39, the typical marriageable age, decreased by about 50 million from 2014 to 2022. This is the main factor behind the declining marriage registrations. And given the current demographic trend, marriage registrations are likely to continue declining in the foreseeable future.

The problem is not that youths are unwilling to marry. Instead, the financial pressure associated with marriage, such as high housing prices, extravagant bride prices and the rising cost of children's education, have made marriage a financial burden that many youths aren't ready to shoulder. In big cities, where most youths are concentrated, the cost of marriage can deplete a family's wealth, making marriage a "luxury" that many are unwilling to pay for.

Another key reason for the declining marriage rate is the traditional Chinese view on marriage and childbirth. For many, marriage is synonymous with starting a family. But today's youths don't necessarily view marriage as a step toward parenthood. So to avoid their parents' pressure to have a child as soon as they get married, many youths delay their marriage, with some refusing to ever get married.

Besides, the difficulties and complexities of divorce have made some youths reluctant to tie the knot. In surveys, many youths have said they find the potential costs, both emotional and financial, of marriage too high. Although laws and policies have been implemented to stabilize marriages, many youths still have "marriage phobia".

Hence, it is important to take an objective view of the decline in marriage registrations. First, the declining marriage rate doesn't mean youths don't want to get married. In fact, compared with Western countries, the number of unmarried people in China is relatively low. Since most Chinese people will eventually marry, the decline in the marriage rate should not be overemphasized.

Second, the decline in the marriage rate will not necessarily lead to social instability. The traditional view is that people can lead a stable life only after marriage. But in modern society, unmarried youths with stable jobs and incomes do not pose a threat to social harmony.

And third, some economists argue that the falling marriage rate is leading to a decline in birth rates and an imbalance in the population structure. But in reality, it takes decades for a population's structure to change. The relatively high number of marriageable-age people in China remaining single is the result of the pre-2015 family planning policy. So, even a drastic increase in the number of marriage registrations will not cause a dramatic change in the population structure. As this trend is likely to persist for some time, people should take a long-term view of the issue, and youths should avail of the policies that make marriage less burdensome to tie the knot.

The declining marriage registrations cannot be solved by simply encouraging youths to embrace conjugal life. The solution lies in taking measures to improve people's living standards and increase their incomes, because the primary reason many youths are reluctant to get married is uncertainty about the future.

In recent years, global instability has increased economic and social risks, with Chinese youths being especially vulnerable to them. Therefore, there is a need to address their concerns, and ensure they feel financially secure enough to enter wedlock.

To alleviate youths' concerns, the authorities need to ease the burden of marriage, by taking measures to ensure young people have stable and decent jobs that pay well, and reduce bride prices and the costs of housing and children's education.

In addition, young people's views on relationships should be respected, and policies should be adjusted to avoid making marriage seem like a trap that leads to painful divorce. Also, a more flexible social environment should be built to help youths pursue their professional goals.

Of course, the key to addressing these problems is ensuring China sustains a healthy economic growth rate and maintains social stability, because it will allow youths to look forward to a future where they can pursue their dreams without facing insurmountable obstacles. By addressing these issues, China can create a better environment for youths, an environment where they can get married without fear.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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