The International Monetary Fund has released its concluding statement following the mission to Kazakhstan, held from November 6 to 19. The document provides a clear and detailed assessment of the country’s economic situation, highlights key risks, and outlines what Kazakhstan needs to do to sustain strong growth in the coming years, DKNews.kz reports.
Below is the main takeaway - explained in simple, accessible language.
The economy is growing faster than expected
According to IMF experts, economic activity in Kazakhstan remains robust. Real GDP growth in 2025 may exceed 6% - one of the strongest results in recent years.
The main drivers include:
- an increase in oil production,
- solid domestic demand - households are spending more and businesses are investing actively.
Growth is expected to remain strong in 2026 as well, reaching around 4.5%. For the region, this is a solid figure, and for Kazakhstan it signals a confident recovery after several challenging years.
Fiscal policy: a shift toward discipline and efficiency
The IMF praised the Government’s plans to:
- introduce a new Tax Code,
- reduce the non-oil deficit,
- comply with fiscal rules that limit the growth of public spending and transfers from the National Fund.
In simple terms, this means more careful management of public money and less reliance on resources intended for future generations.
This approach is also reassuring for investors - it shows that Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy is becoming more predictable and sustainable.
Risks remain - from external shocks to internal delays
The IMF also outlined a number of risks that could affect Kazakhstan’s economic trajectory. These risks matter not only for analysts but also for ordinary citizens, as they influence prices, jobs, and income stability.
Key risks include:
- slower economic growth in major trading partners,
- possible disruptions in oil exports via the CPC pipeline,
- declines in global oil prices,
- delays in implementing infrastructure projects,
- slower-than-planned fiscal consolidation.
The IMF also notes that strong economic activity, the increase in VAT rates, and expected growth in utility tariffs could keep inflation elevated.
In other words, prices may remain high longer than people would like.
Monetary policy: raising the base rate was justified
The IMF commended the National Bank for taking decisive steps to curb inflation. Among the measures highlighted:
- raising the base rate in October,
- gradually increasing minimum reserve requirements to absorb excess liquidity in the banking sector,
- plans to strengthen macroprudential measures amid rapid growth in consumer lending.
Put simply: the regulator is trying to prevent excessive credit growth, which could push inflation even higher.
A new 2026-2028 program: boosting incomes and stabilizing inflation
The mission also highlighted the Joint Action Plan being developed by the Government, the National Bank, and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market for 2026-2028.
Its main objectives are clear and relevant to everyone:
- raising real household incomes,
- stabilizing and reducing inflation.
This program reflects a medium-term strategy and shows that the authorities are working on systemic issues, not just short-term fixes.
Structural reforms: less state involvement, more efficiency
The IMF recommends that Kazakhstan continue structural reforms aimed at:
- reducing the state’s role in the economy,
- increasing productivity,
- strengthening competition.
The smaller the state’s share in economic activity, the faster the private sector adapts, the higher the efficiency, and the greater the potential for sustainable long-term growth.
What does all this mean for ordinary people?
In short:
- the economy is expanding - which is positive,
- but inflation is likely to remain high,
- the Government plans to tighten control over public spending - critical for long-term stability,
- credit conditions may gradually become stricter,
- income growth will depend on how successfully inflation is brought under control.
Bottom line: Kazakhstan is moving in the right direction - but challenges remain
Overall, the IMF’s concluding statement is positive. Kazakhstan continues to grow, investors see the country as a reliable partner, and the authorities are working toward more disciplined fiscal policy.
However, relying too heavily on oil and domestic demand carries risks. That is why the IMF’s recommendations - structural reforms, disciplined budgeting, and stronger institutions - are especially important today.
