波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒

  Home>News Center>China
       
 

Four reasons why China will not revalue RMB
(China Daily HK Edition)
Updated: 2004-04-05 10:43

Aside from political pressures from the US, there's really no reason for China to appreciate its currency.

Four fundamental conditions that exist today will prevent China from floating the renminbi.

First, restrictions on the Chinese travelling to the US and other major countries restrict investment and spending opportunities. Second, the floating rate of housing mortgages and the lack of individual credit lending system reduce China's control on inflation and lending. Third, the high income tax rate has created near zero profit for export industries that can easily move factories to other countries when labour costs or the renminbi become too high. Lastly, and most importantly, the income gap between the roughly 900 million rural population and the 500 million urban population has widened to an unprecedented 1:4 level, with the average rural real income less than 1,900 yuan (US$230) per year. If not resolved or controlled, any of these four conditions can create disasters for the Chinese economy.

Restrictions on the Chinese travelling abroad give Chinese companies no means to sell products directly to end consumers, no means to find the latest technology necessary to stay competitive, and no means to invest excess money in other countries' markets. This unfair condition will put a massive demand on the renminbi if China floats its currency.

Everyone will buy renminbi to invest and spend in China while virtually no Chinese will be able to buy foreign currencies to spend abroad. This will artificially shoot up the value of the renminbi and stop investment in any new factories while there are still millions of people in China who can provide cheap labour. As long as foreign countries restrict entry to Chinese, China will not agree to float its currency.

In the years to come, we should expect to see a gradual opening of Chinese investment and spending abroad, but for now the pressure is still on foreign currencies to appreciate against the renminbi.

Perhaps not as apparent, but a much more serious problem exists within China's housing mortgage system. From steel to concrete to coal to other commodities, the real-estate boom in the past six years that has created huge demand on raw materials will continue to require massive imports of commodities that are lacking in China.

At the same time, real-estate pricing bubbles and illegal acquisitions of farm lands have created a phantom inflation problem that has actually put a constraint on the development of non-real-estate industries. The culprit is the floating mortgage interest rate.

To make new housing available to common people, China has been pushing a low floating rate mortgage lending system that allows people to borrow money to buy houses at an interest rate level much lower than the most favourable corporate lending rate. Developers and entrepreneurs have been able to finance their projects by hyping up property prices and borrowing from banks twice the amount than the real worth of previous projects. China will not be able to raise interest rates to regulate the housing industry simply because by doing so, common people will not be able to afford the monthly payments and will be forced to forfeit their homes while developers can walk away free leaving banks with all the mortgaged properties without a market.

We will see a crackdown from the government on illegal development of real estate, but without fixing the interest at market rate, China will not be able to stop the real-estate inflation problem, which will continue to force the renminbi to devalue.

In comparison to other countries' income-tax rates, China is considered one of the highest in the world. Foreigners have been investing heavily in China for the past 15 years to set up factories for the manufacturing of their products abroad, taking advantage of the cheap labour in China. Although China is a big market, imports have always been tough due to high VAT, sales, and import duty or quota taxes. With the high income-tax rate, there's no incentive for these exporting enterprises to leave any profit inside China. That means multinational corporations will buy from their Chinese factories at a price just enough to cover the cost and have all the profits assigned to their distribution companies elsewhere that have a much lower income-tax rate. That would then leave China very vulnerable to renminbi appreciation.

By not floating the renminbi, China is essentially asking foreign companies to use foreign currencies to pay for Chinese labour. This is also the reason why China is the second-largest holder of US dollars outside the United States. If China floats its currency, foreign investments would have the freedom to buy renminbi to set up Chinese ventures, which will create a huge demand for renminbi and artificially appreciate the currency.

Appreciation of the currency means Chinese labour is artificially more expensive, and factories will start to leave China for other cheap-labour countries, leaving millions of people without a job in China. We are likely to see the split of income tax to an income tax and a dividend tax to encourage corporate reinvestment.

The biggest problem China faces in terms of both political and economic stability is its 900 million rural population that is still living in poverty. This number represents 65 per cent of China's total population, much higher than a fully-industrialized country of about 25 per cent. At the same time, China has been behind in spending on rural education, infrastructure, technology, and medical systems. As a percentage of total spending, China has reduced its annual spending in rural areas from 13.4 per cent in 1978 to 7.7 per cent in 2001, a mere 146 billion yuan (US$17.6 billion). What that translates to is that there are still a lot of cheap labourers for the world to set up their factories in China. To industrialize, China will need to invest heavily in the rural areas and bring the rural population up to industrialization standards.

Already, China has committed to spend an additional 110 billion yuan (US$13.3 billion) just on the educational systems of rural areas this year. China will have to keep its labour cost or currency low to compete and generate new jobs for its people. Until China can successfully push at least half of its rural farming population into industrialial production, the currency is not likely to budge.

In conclusion, until the above four fundamental problems are solved in China, there's really no reason to appreciate the currency.

 
  Today's Top News     Top China News
 

State of emergency law to set basic rights

 

   
 

HK: Calls for reason amid strife concerns

 

   
 

Four reasons why China will not revalue RMB

 

   
 

Bird flu requires tight watch

 

   
 

Iraqi anti-US protests turn violent, 30 killed

 

   
 

Corruption haunts Wenzhou high-rise project

 

   
  HK: Calls for reason amid strife concerns
   
  Corruption haunts Wenzhou high-rise project
   
  Bird flu requires tight watch
   
  State of emergency law to set basic rights
   
  Nation quickens spread of e-gov't
   
  Shanghai office rent rise tops Asia
   
 
  Go to Another Section  
 
 
  Story Tools  
   
  Related Stories  
   
Central bank vows to keep RMB exchange rate stable
   
China pledges yuan stability
   
Greenspan: Free floatation of the yuan could be risky
   
Stability of renminbi reaffirmed
   
Yuan stability remains 'wise'
   
Chief economist: Revalue RMB 'a serious mistake'
   
ADB chief: China should be cautious in RMB liberalization
  News Talk  
  Sex Education, a necessary evil?  
Advertisement
         
波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒
91精品少妇一区二区三区蜜桃臀| 中文字幕一区二区三区四区| 亚洲韩国一区二区三区| av毛片久久久久**hd| 欧美特级一级片| 国产精品理伦片| 成人v精品蜜桃久久一区| 中文乱码字幕高清一区二区| 中文字幕不卡在线播放| 国产成人一级电影| 亚洲女人毛茸茸高潮| 中文字幕av不卡| 国产成人av自拍| 少妇被躁爽到高潮无码文| 中文字幕一区二区三区乱码在线| 高清在线观看日韩| 色爱区综合激月婷婷| 亚洲伦理在线免费看| 免费高清视频在线观看| 欧美性色黄大片| 亚洲国产精品麻豆| 欧美 日本 国产| 久久女同性恋中文字幕| 国产精品中文字幕一区二区三区| 午夜国产福利视频| 国产精品久久三区| 91在线你懂得| 91麻豆精品国产91久久久久久久久| 日韩国产精品久久| 手机看片日韩av| 国产精品久久久久久久久晋中| 99视频超级精品| 欧美年轻男男videosbes| 日韩av电影免费观看高清完整版| 国产色视频一区二区三区qq号| wwwwww.欧美系列| 国产成人综合在线| 在线看日本不卡| 香蕉久久夜色精品国产使用方法| 亚洲综合网在线观看| 国产午夜精品一区二区三区嫩草 | 精品国产免费久久| 国产最新精品精品你懂的| 伊人久久久久久久久久久久久久| 亚洲色图制服丝袜| 国模无码视频一区| 久久综合色之久久综合| 成人福利电影精品一区二区在线观看| 欧美中文字幕一区二区三区亚洲 | 色婷婷综合久久久中文字幕| 亚洲国产综合色| 中文字幕在线1| 中文字幕亚洲精品在线观看| 逼特逼视频在线观看| 久久久亚洲精品石原莉奈| 床上的激情91.| 欧美日韩黄视频| 国产综合一区二区| 欧美日韩精品高清| 老司机免费视频一区二区| 青青草原在线免费观看| 天天做天天摸天天爽国产一区| 欧美激情久久久久久久| 亚洲最新在线观看| 中文字幕在线观看免费高清| 亚洲精品成人天堂一二三| 国产精品成人一区二区三区电影毛片| 中文字幕免费一区| 国产69视频在线观看| 亚洲国产成人在线| 国产女人18毛片水真多18| 国产精品人妖ts系列视频| 你懂得在线视频| 中文字幕在线观看一区| 国产传媒第一页| 亚洲精选一二三| 美国黄色特级片| 亚洲成在人线免费| 日韩成人短视频| 免费观看在线综合| 在线观看成人免费视频| 国产一区二区三区av电影 | 欧美视频在线一区| 国产成人综合在线| 精品奇米国产一区二区三区| 男人女人拔萝卜视频| 欧美激情一区二区| 无码 人妻 在线 视频| 亚洲五码中文字幕| 精品自拍偷拍视频| 精品一区二区三区免费视频| 欧美日韩成人综合天天影院| 成人免费黄色大片| 精品乱人伦小说| 中文字幕天堂网| 亚洲乱码日产精品bd| 亚洲熟女少妇一区二区| 日本中文字幕一区二区有限公司| 欧美亚洲综合色| 成人app网站| 中文字幕av在线一区二区三区| 国产精品三级在线观看无码| 亚洲一区二区三区四区在线观看| 一本久久精品一区二区| 国产黄色精品视频| 久久亚洲私人国产精品va媚药| av在线播放网址| 亚洲国产视频一区| 在线影视一区二区三区| 成人av资源在线| 国产精品麻豆欧美日韩ww| www.xx日本| 国产精品自拍网站| 国产日韩亚洲欧美综合| 干b视频在线观看| 精油按摩中文字幕久久| 日韩精品一区二区三区在线播放| 免费观看黄网站| 亚洲一区二区在线视频| 欧美伊人久久久久久久久影院| 91在线观看地址| 一区二区三区小说| 欧洲av在线精品| a级大片免费看| 亚洲另类在线一区| 在线视频国产一区| 在线观看视频你懂得| 亚洲最快最全在线视频| 欧美日韩综合色| 色婷婷狠狠18禁久久| 亚洲国产人成综合网站| 欧美精品一卡两卡| 一本加勒比波多野结衣| 日韩高清在线电影| 26uuu亚洲综合色| 人人妻人人澡人人爽| 国产精品一区2区| 国产精品人妖ts系列视频| 黄色一级片中国| 99久久国产综合色|国产精品| 亚洲欧美一区二区三区极速播放| 91久久人澡人人添人人爽欧美 | 国产精品色一区二区三区| 国产一区二区播放| 99国产精品99久久久久久| 亚洲一区视频在线观看视频| 欧美日韩黄色一区二区| 久久人人妻人人人人妻性色av| 免费成人在线视频观看| 26uuu国产一区二区三区| 亚洲 欧美 变态 另类 综合| 播五月开心婷婷综合| 亚洲一区二区三区四区在线免费观看| 4438成人网| 中字幕一区二区三区乱码 | 精品日韩成人av| 五月婷婷综合激情网| 99国产精品久久久久久久久久 | 亚洲观看黄色网| 久久电影网电视剧免费观看| 国产女主播一区| 日本精品免费观看高清观看| 精品少妇人妻av一区二区三区| 美女mm1313爽爽久久久蜜臀| 国产欧美一区二区精品婷婷| 91国产精品成人| 粉嫩av懂色av蜜臀av分享| 国产乱理伦片在线观看夜一区| 亚洲日本在线天堂| 91精品国产综合久久久久久漫画| 免费看91的网站| 91免费看片在线观看| 奇米影视一区二区三区小说| 欧美激情一区二区三区在线| 在线观看www91| 精品国产av色一区二区深夜久久 | 91香蕉视频在线播放| 日本人妻一区二区三区| 久久99国产精品尤物| 亚洲视频精选在线| 日韩精品一区在线| 色婷婷综合五月| 亚洲色成人网站www永久四虎| 成人午夜电影久久影院| 首页综合国产亚洲丝袜| 国产精品天美传媒| 制服丝袜亚洲精品中文字幕| 国产3级在线观看| 国产不卡一二三| 成人激情免费网站| 免费美女久久99| 亚洲激情网站免费观看| 久久人人爽爽爽人久久久| 精品视频在线视频| 午夜国产福利视频| 久久久久9999| 91伊人久久大香线蕉| 国产一区二区美女| 天天操天天色综合| 最新国产成人在线观看|