波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒

  Home>News Center>China
       
 

Too early to raise alarm over deflation
By Li Shi (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-03-10 06:32

The first month of the year has seen the consumer price index (CPI) fall to 1.9 per cent, a figure that has prompted some people to become alarmed about deflation.

Painful memories of deflation in the years after the 1997 Asian financial crisis are still too vivid to forget.

Some people have suggested that a further interest rate rise could worsen the situation and send China onto the track of economic stagnation.

It would be risky, however, for policy-makers to take the drop in the CPI in a single month as a barometer for measuring the whole economic picture.

The CPI's fall in January has been taken as a result of the interest rate hike implemented late last year. On October 28, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced that it was lifting its benchmark lending rate from 5.31 to 5.58 per cent.

In classic economic theory, interest rate hikes raise the cost of borrowing money and so dampen economic activity, which in turn affects prices.

Last October's interest rate hike certainly worked. It forced down the price index in January. A slight interest rate rise can have a big impact on prices, although there is always a time lag before monetary policies take effect.

Before the policy was hammered out, conservative economists had predicted an interest rate rise would not bring about the desired results since Chinese enterprises, many of which are State-owned, are not wholly market-oriented or duly interest-rate sensitive.

The current situation shows that monetary policy does have an effective role to play in directing market activities in the country, despite the immaturity of its market economy.

The temporary nature of the interest rate hike naturally leads to the question: Where will monetary policy go next?

In the wake of last October's rate increase, some economists claimed it was too little to stabilize the economy. But the CPI's fall in January - the rate was 3.9 per cent on average last year - seems to disapprove their argument.

But the change in the index does not mean policy-makers should preclude any interest rate manoeuvre in the coming months to fight "pending deflation."

Policy-makers initiated the interest move last October to pre-empt uncontrollable inflation. The aim is clear: Gradually achieve a soft-landing through modest interest rate adjustments. The 0.27 percentage point rise acted as a feeler to gauge market reaction.

More importantly, analysts point out, the central bank's move was just one link in an interest rate re-adjustment cycle. Central bank authorities have claimed there may be further tightening this year if over-investment cannot be curbed.

In this sense, a statistical change in a month is not enough information to prompt the government to re-direct its policies.

Technically, the CPI was low in January not only because last year's monetary policy has taken effect, but also because the Spring Festival, a major shopping season, was in January last year while this year's festival fell in February.

Considering this factor, February's CPI figure may rise significantly month-on-month. The Price Monitoring Centre of the National Development and Reform Commission has predicted the CPI could rise to over 3 per cent, and that the figure for the first quarter of this year could be around 2.5 per cent. Other think tanks believe the yearly CPI figure could be around 3 per cent.

In the coming months, it is certain that the CPI will recover from its January low. Deflation is not possible at the moment.

Moreover, the CPI calculation has not been updated for years. Its accuracy in mirroring the warmth of the economy has long been in doubt.

Many commodities that have a significant bearing on actual prices are not included in the CPI framework. Cars, travel, telecommunications and housing, all major items, are not taken into account in the CPI system.

House prices, for example, are soaring in China. Last year, the price of commercial land and housing rose by 10.1 and 9.7 per cent respectively. It is not realistic for us to expect this trend will not continue this year.

The question now seems to have shifted from whether policy-makers should take measures to prevent possible deflation to whether they will have to introduce interest rate rises to prevent inflation.

Despite the CPI drop in January, there still is a danger of inflation.

In the first place, the price of grain rose by 14.2 per cent in January. Grain is a vital commodity with strong price implications. Among last year's 3.9 per cent of CPI growth, 3.3 percentage points came from price rises of grain- and food-related products.

Prices of raw materials and fuel, the effect of which ultimately spills over into other fields, rose by 11.4 per cent last year. This trend will put great pressure on this year's overall price level.

For example, steel prices are set to rise this year following a more than 70 per cent iron ore price rise deal, reached between major Chinese steelmakers and a leading Brazilian mining company.

And oil, although it has dropped from last October's high, is expected to remain expensive.

Labour prices may follow suit. Since the Spring Festival, people have found migrant workers are in serious short supply in many places, which is driving up labour prices.

In the monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank warned inflationary pressure has not yet ended.

At the ongoing National People's Congress session, policy-makers have also made it clear that macroeconomic measures will continue this year. This is a sign of doubt about the future of the economy.

According to a November survey by the central bank, 41.5 per cent of those surveyed thought consumer prices would rise further.

So, will there be deflation or inflation?

The answer may depend on economic data collected over a long period. The CPI figure for one month is not sufficient to provide a sound basis for ringing the deflation alarm bells.

(China Daily 03/10/2005 page4)



 
  Today's Top News     Top China News
 

People's congress prepared to 'fulfil history'

 

   
 

Lenovo wins US nod to buy IBM PC

 

   
 

Corrupt officials seized and punished

 

   
 

State banks urged to reform with gov't input

 

   
 

41 corpses found in Iraq; blast kills four

 

   
 

China hints at death penalty reform

 

   
  Taxes form east to pay for rural social programs
   
  SOEs asset write-offs cost country dear
   
  Medical sector in dire need of changes
   
  China hints at death penalty reform
   
  Education void expands wealth gap
   
  Chinese firms join Galileo project
   
 
  Go to Another Section  
 
 
  Story Tools  
   
  News Talk  
  It is time to prepare for Beijing - 2008  
Advertisement
         
波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒
日本中文字幕有码| 久久综合一区二区| 亚洲色图第一区| 国产高清不卡一区| 欧美图片一区二区三区| 自拍偷拍国产亚洲| 成人av网址在线| 国产97免费视频| 国产精品精品国产色婷婷| 国产伦精品一区二区三区免费| 亚洲欧洲久久久| 精品久久久久香蕉网| 琪琪久久久久日韩精品| 亚洲第一黄色网址| 欧美成人精品3d动漫h| 麻豆成人免费电影| av女人的天堂| 久久精品免费在线观看| 国内精品久久久久影院色| 日韩女同一区二区三区 | 99视频精品全部免费在线| 性欧美疯狂猛交69hd| 国产精品久久久久一区二区三区| 成人激情黄色小说| 色婷婷综合久久久中文一区二区 | 欧美国产精品v| 高清不卡一区二区在线| 色综合天天综合网天天狠天天 | 日本一区二区视频在线| 国产福利精品一区| 国产性xxxx| 一区二区三区在线观看国产| 制服.丝袜.亚洲.中文.综合懂| 欧美日韩国产乱码电影| 日韩avvvv在线播放| jizz18女人高潮| 亚洲视频在线一区二区| 国产成人精品一区二区在线小狼| 538在线一区二区精品国产| 麻豆成人av在线| 最新一区二区三区| 一区二区三区国产精华| 亚洲最大免费视频| 久久精品男人的天堂| 91在线国产观看| 日韩视频免费观看高清完整版 | 久久爱www久久做| 国产在线观看免费视频软件| 亚洲精品成人精品456| 欧美熟妇精品一区二区蜜桃视频| 久久综合九色综合97婷婷女人 | 国产高清精品网站| 日本伦理一区二区| 日韩av午夜在线观看| 国产白丝一区二区三区| 亚洲激情一二三区| 无码人妻精品一区二区三应用大全| 亚洲国产精品激情在线观看| 91麻豆精品秘密| 欧美xxxx在线观看| 成人久久视频在线观看| 欧美日韩视频在线一区二区| 九九九久久久精品| 色噜噜狠狠色综合欧洲selulu| 日韩电影在线一区二区| 欧美在线视频第一页| 丝袜亚洲精品中文字幕一区| 男的操女的网站| 美国十次综合导航| 色婷婷av久久久久久久| 免费成人你懂的| 在线欧美日韩国产| 九色综合狠狠综合久久| 欧美日韩一区在线观看| 国产精品自在在线| 欧美久久久久久久久| 国产河南妇女毛片精品久久久| 欧美肥大bbwbbw高潮| 国产成人高清在线| 日韩视频在线永久播放| 97超碰欧美中文字幕| 久久精品一区二区三区av| 无码人妻丰满熟妇区毛片蜜桃精品 | 国产视频一区二区在线| 瑟瑟视频在线观看| 欧美一卡2卡3卡4卡| 成人中文字幕在线| 日韩欧美国产一二三区| av色综合久久天堂av综合| 精品久久免费看| 女性生殖扒开酷刑vk| 国产精品视频在线看| 人妻熟女aⅴ一区二区三区汇编| 亚洲欧洲制服丝袜| 欧美激情 一区| 日韩电影免费一区| 欧美中文字幕不卡| 国产aⅴ精品一区二区三区色成熟| 欧美成人一区二区三区片免费| xxxx国产视频| 亚洲三级在线免费观看| 欧美特黄一级片| 国产一区三区三区| 日韩欧美电影一区| 91超薄肉色丝袜交足高跟凉鞋| 亚洲欧美一区二区在线观看| 精品一区二区三孕妇视频| 日本系列欧美系列| 91.com在线观看| 亚洲精品一区二区18漫画| 亚洲欧洲精品成人久久奇米网| 国精产品视频一二二区| 久久超碰97人人做人人爱| 日韩欧美一级片| 中文字幕精品视频在线| 亚洲一本大道在线| 欧美亚一区二区| 91亚洲精华国产精华精华液| 国产精品无人区| 中文字幕观看av| 国产精品资源站在线| 久久亚洲影视婷婷| 精品成人无码一区二区三区| 国产乱子轮精品视频| 激情六月婷婷久久| 日韩一级片在线播放| 免费看三级黄色片| 亚洲制服丝袜av| 欧美婷婷六月丁香综合色| 不卡高清视频专区| 国产精品久久久久毛片软件| 国产精品夜夜夜爽阿娇| 国产一区二区美女诱惑| 久久久午夜精品| jizz日本在线播放| 国产精品资源在线看| 国产精品视频一二| 免费在线观看h片| 99久久婷婷国产| 亚洲精品日韩专区silk| 欧美午夜精品一区| 精品久久久久久无码人妻| 偷拍一区二区三区四区| 欧美成人艳星乳罩| 九九热免费在线| 高清在线成人网| 亚洲精品中文在线影院| 欧美视频一区二区三区在线观看| 欧美熟妇精品一区二区| 午夜视频一区二区| 精品国产一区二区三区av性色| 三年中国中文观看免费播放| 粉嫩嫩av羞羞动漫久久久 | 亚洲国产av一区| 激情成人综合网| 日本一区二区在线不卡| 色哟哟日韩精品| aaa黄色大片| 免费看日韩a级影片| 久久久国际精品| 日本韩国一区二区三区视频| 久久久久久久久久影视| 久久国产综合精品| 国产精品乱子久久久久| 欧洲一区在线电影| 亚洲制服丝袜在线播放| 国产一区美女在线| 亚洲女同女同女同女同女同69| 777亚洲妇女| 韩国三级hd中文字幕| av电影在线观看完整版一区二区| 亚洲成人你懂的| 久久久精品tv| 在线观看91视频| xxxx日本免费| 99久久伊人精品| 日韩av一区二| 中文字幕在线一区免费| 欧美绝品在线观看成人午夜影视| a级片在线观看| 白白色亚洲国产精品| 亚洲成人免费看| 国产日韩欧美高清| 欧美日韩你懂得| 99久久99久久精品免费看小说.| 亚洲国产欧美日韩在线| 蓝色福利精品导航| 亚洲激情五月婷婷| 久久午夜国产精品| 欧美日韩极品在线观看一区| 国产一区二区三区精品在线| 色欲无码人妻久久精品| 精品系列免费在线观看| 一区二区三区在线不卡| 国产婷婷色一区二区三区四区| 欧美日韩性生活| 日韩一级片大全| wwwwww日本| 蜜桃视频无码区在线观看| 国产精品1区2区3区在线观看|