研究：少數族裔未來將占英國人口三分之一

Up to 'a third of UK population will be black or from another ethnic minority' by 2050

中國日報網 2014-05-15 17:01

Changing: Britain's black and minority ethnic population has doubled in past decade

Up to a third of the population will be black or from another ethnic minority by 2050, new research forecasts today.

There are currently eight million non-white people – 14% of the total – across England and Wales, according to the study by the Tory think tank Policy Exchange.

But the so-called BME (black and minority ethnic) population has doubled in the past decade and now accounts for 80% of growth while the white population has remained constant.

While ethnic minorities make up just 5% of the over-60s, they account for a quarter of under fives.

That means between 20% and 30% of people will be black or ethnic minority by the middle of the century.

And it is a time bomb for the Tories who struggle to win votes from BME communities which overwhelmingly back Labour.

The findings should act as a wake-up call for politicians to stop treating people from non-white backgrounds as one, single group, the think tank said.

Since the Second World War immigration from the Caribbean , the Indian subcontinent and Africa has produced in diverse groups with widely differing opinions, experiences and traditions, it said.

There are “clear and meaningful differences between each of these communities which need to be fully understood” but politicians are not doing that, the report says.

Author Rishi Sunak said: “These communities will continue to become an ever more significant part of Britain, especially in future elections.

“However, as our research demonstrates ethnic minorities are not one homogeneous political group.

"From education to employment, housing to trust in the police, politicians from all parties must understand the different issues affecting individual communities.”

The research draws on survey, census, academic and polling data to build up a detailed picture of the five largest minority groups in the UK - Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Black Caribbean.

With the exception of those from an African background a majority of non-white Britons describe themselves as “British-only”, the report said.

BME communities also overwhelmingly support the Labour Party “regardless of class or association with Conservative policies”.

Some 68% voted for Gordon Brown’s party at the 21010 General Election, compared with 16% for the Conservatives and 14% for the Liberal Democrats.

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新研究預測，到2050年英國將有三分之一的人口為黑人或者其他少數族裔。

保守智庫“政策交流”研究發現，目前英格蘭和威爾士地區約有八百萬非白人，占總人口的14%。

但BME（黑人和少數民族）人數在過去十年里翻了一倍，占人口總增量的80%，而白種人的人數增長則保持不變。

在60歲以上的人群中，少數民族占5%，而在5歲以下的人群中占四分之一。

這意味著到本世紀中期，黑人和少數民族將會占人口總數的20%到30%。

這對于保守黨來說是個潛在威脅，由于BME人群幾乎都支持工黨，保守黨很難從他們手上贏得選票。

智庫稱，這些研究發現為政客們敲響了警鐘，不能再把非白人當做一個可有可無的群體。

第二次世界大戰后來由自加勒比海、印度次大陸和非洲的移民組成的不同群體有著不同的見解、經歷和傳統。

“不同人群間的差異明顯、值得探究，需要政客充分領會”，但是報告顯示官員們沒有這么做。

作家瑞希·薩科說道：“這些群體將會在英國繼續存在并且扮演更重要的角色，尤其是在未來的選舉方面。”

“當然，我們的研究表明，少數民族并不具有完全一致的政治傾向性。”

“無論是教育還是就業，住房到對警察的信任方面，各黨派的政治家都需要充分了解影響各個社區的不同因素。”

這份研究利用問卷調查、普查、學術研究和投票得到的數據構成了英國最大的五個少數民族群體——印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、非洲黑人和加勒比海黑人的詳細情況圖。

報告稱，除了來自非洲的移民，大多數非白種的英國人把自己描述成“正統英國人”。

BME群體也強烈支持工黨“無視保守派的階級聯合政策”。

在2010的換屆選舉中，戈登·布朗所在的政黨獲得了68%的選票，保守黨獲得了16%的選票，而民主黨獲得了14%。

（譯者曳尾編輯高晴）

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