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馬航失聯飛機可能飛行五個小時
Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

[ 2014-03-13 16:06] 來源:中國日報網     字號 [] [] []  
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馬航失聯飛機可能飛行五個小時

3月12日,馬來西亞交通部長Hishammuddin Hussein在吉隆坡舉行的關于搜救行動的新聞發布會上。

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U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU -2.04% Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.

Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing Co. BA -0.99% 777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program.

That raises a host of new questions and possibilities about what happened aboard the widebody jet carrying 239 people, which vanished from civilian air-traffic control radar over the weekend, about one hour into a flight to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur.

Six days after the mysterious disappearance prompted a massive international air and water search that so far hasn't produced any results, the investigation appears to be broadening in scope.

U.S. counterterrorism officials are pursuing the possibility that a pilot or someone else on board the plane may have diverted it toward an undisclosed location after intentionally turning off the jetliner's transponders to avoid radar detection, according to one person tracking the probe.

The investigation remains fluid, and it isn't clear whether investigators have evidence indicating possible terrorism or espionage. So far, U.S. national security officials have said that nothing specifically points toward terrorism, though they haven't ruled it out.

But the huge uncertainty about where the plane was headed, and why it apparently continued flying so long without working transponders, has raised theories among investigators that the aircraft may have been commandeered for a reason that appears unclear to U.S. authorities. Some of those theories have been laid out to national security officials and senior personnel from various U.S. agencies, according to one person familiar with the matter.

At one briefing, according to this person, officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted "with the intention of using it later for another purpose."

As of Wednesday it remained unclear whether the plane reached an alternate destination or if it ultimately crashed, potentially hundreds of miles from where an international search effort has been focused.

In those scenarios, neither mechanical problems, pilot mistakes nor some other type of catastrophic incident caused the 250-ton plane to mysteriously vanish from radar.

The latest revelations come as local media reported that Malaysian police visited the home of at least one of the two pilots.

Boeing officials and a Malaysia Airlines official declined to comment.

The engines' onboard monitoring system is provided by their manufacturer, Rolls-Royce RR.LN -1.71% PLC, and it periodically sends bursts of data about engine health, operations and aircraft movements to facilities on the ground.

Rolls-Royce couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

As part of its maintenance agreements, Malaysia Airlines transmits its engine data live to Rolls-Royce for analysis. The system compiles data from inside the 777's two Trent 800 engines and transmits snapshots of performance, as well as the altitude and speed of the jet.

Those snippets are compiled and transmitted in 30-minute increments, said one person familiar with the system. According to Rolls-Royce's website, the data is processed automatically "so that subtle changes in condition from one flight to another can be detected."

The engine data is being analyzed to help determine the flight path of the plane after the transponders stopped working. The jet was originally headed for China, and its last verified position was half way across the Gulf of Thailand.

A total flight time of five hours after departing Kuala Lumpur means the Boeing 777 could have continued for an additional distance of about 2,200 nautical miles, reaching points as far as the Indian Ocean, the border of Pakistan or even the Arabian Sea, based on the jet's cruising speed.

Earlier Wednesday, frustrations over the protracted search for the missing plane mounted as both China and Vietnam vented their anger over what they viewed as poor coordination of the effort.

Government conflicts and national arguments over crises are hardly unique to the Flight 370 situation, but some air-safety experts said they couldn't recall another recent instance of governments publicly feuding over search procedures during the early phase of an international investigation.

Authorities radically expanded the size of the search zone Wednesday, which already was proving a challenge to cover effectively, but the mission hadn't turned up much by the end of the fifth day.

WSJ has confirmed that the pilot had the ability to manually turn off the transponder on Flight MH370. A mid-air catastrophe could have destroyed it. Why is the transponder so significant? WSJ's Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer.

Also on Wednesday, a Chinese government website posted images from Chinese satellites showing what it said were three large objects floating in an 8-square-mile area off the southern tip of Vietnam. The objects were discovered on Sunday , according to the website, which didn't say whether the objects had been recovered or examined.

Ten countries were helping to scour the seas around Malaysia, including China, the U.S. and Vietnam. Taiwanese vessels are expected to be on the scene by Friday, with India and Japan having also agreed to join the search soon.

In all, 56 surface ships were taking part in the search, according to statements issued by the contributing governments, with Malaysia providing 27 of them. In addition, 30 fixed-wing aircraft were also searching, with at least 10 shipboard helicopters available, mostly in the waters between Malaysia and Vietnam.

China's government was especially aggrieved. More than 150 of the 239 people on board are Chinese, and family members in Beijing have at times loudly expressed their frustration over the absence of leads.

More than a dozen Chinese diplomats met with Malaysian authorities in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday as tension grew over the search.

"At present there's a lot of different information out there. It's very chaotic and very hard to verify," foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in a regular press briefing. "We've said as long as there is a shred of hope, you can't give up."

The day before, Beijing pointedly pressed Malaysia to accelerate its investigation, which has been hampered by false leads on suspected debris and conflicting reports on radar tracking.

Vietnam on Wednesday suspended its search flights after conflicting reports from Malaysia that authorities had tracked the plane to the Strait of Malacca before it disappeared.

Gen. Rodzali Daud, Malaysia's air force chief, denied saying he had told local media that military radar facilities had tracked the plane there, saying they were still examining all possibilities. Vietnam later resumed normal search sweeps.

Malaysian authorities divided the search area into several sectors on either side of the country, as well as areas on land.

The challenge, said Lt. David Levy, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet, isn't so much coordination as the sheer size of the area involved. The search grids are up to 20 miles by 120 miles, and ships and aircraft employ an exhaustive methodical pattern "like mowing your lawn" in their search for the plane, he said.

China and Vietnam venting their frustration with the slow progress of the mission and what they view as poor coordination of the effort to find Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Allison Morrow reports on the News Hub. Photo: Getty Images.

U.S. defense officials sought to play down any suggestion that the Malaysian government was doing a poor job with the search.

"It is not unusual for searches to take a long time, especially when you are working with limited data," one official said.

Aviation experts say the absence of an electronic signal from the plane before it disappeared from radar screens makes it difficult to pin down possible locations. Some radar data suggested the Boeing 777 might have tried to turn back to Kuala Lumpur before contact was lost, a detail that prompted a search for the plane on both sides of the Malaysian peninsula.

A U.S. Navy P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft has been searching the northern Strait of Malacca, west of Malaysia, while destroyers USS Kidd and USS Pinckney have been deploying helicopters in the Gulf of Thailand to the east.

So far the U.S., like other nations taking part in the search, has had no success. Many aviation experts are concluding that searchers might not have been looking in the right places. Even if the plane broke up in midair, it would have left telltale traces of debris in the ocean. The cracks now emerging between some of the participants in the search could make it even more difficult.

You can help search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, thanks to a website called Tomnod.com. It allows anyone to comb the area where rescue workers are searching using satellite images. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to DigitalGlobe's Luke Barrington.

Diplomatic feuds over air disasters have generally erupted over the conclusions of the investigations, long after the initial search is over.

The results of the 1999 crash of an Egyptair Boeing 767 en route to Egypt from New York, which killed 217 people, spawned a dispute between Washington and Cairo that strained ties for years. The National Transportation Safety Board concluded the plane's co-pilot purposely put the twin-engine jet into a steep dive and then resisted efforts by the captain to recover control before the airliner slammed into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Nantucket. Egyptian authorities insisted the evidence indicated mechanical failure.

Years earlier, Washington and Paris butted heads over the investigation of an American Eagle commuter turboprop that crashed in 1994 near Roselawn, Ind. The French objected to the NTSB's conclusions that French regulators failed to take actions that could have prevented the accident.

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據《華爾街日報》3月13日報道,據兩位知情人士透露,美國調查人員懷疑馬航370航班離開最后被定位的位置后,仍在空中飛行約4個小時。而這意味著飛機在失聯后可能又繼續飛行了幾百英里,雖然后來飛行時的具體情況目前尚未可知。

根據自動下載并發送至地面的波音777發動機數據(該數據平時用于對飛機的例行檢查和監控),美國航空調查人員和國家安全部門官員認為該失聯航班飛行了總計5個小時。

該航班于3月8日從吉隆坡出發飛往北京,但剛剛起飛不到1個小時,就突然失去了同地面的通訊聯絡,同時雷達信號消失,并自此失蹤。這一新發現對此班載有239人的大型客機失聯后發生的情況,又提出了很多新的問題和可能性。

在該航班神秘失蹤之后的六天里,多國在相關海域展開了空中和海上搜救。但是截至目前,救援工作仍未取得重大發現或實質性進展,救援力量已決定擴大搜索范圍。

美國反恐官員根據一名飛機探測器監控人員的觀察猜測,可能是機組人員或機上其他人士故意關閉了應答器以躲避雷達監測后,人為地更改了飛機的航向駛向目前為不人知的目的地。

目前,該調查仍在進行中,但是還不明確調查人員是否已發現暗示恐怖襲擊或間諜行動的證據。截至目前,美國國家安全部門的官員表示,尚未發現將該事件指向恐怖襲擊的任何線索,但也并不排除恐怖襲擊的可能。

對于該失聯航班到底去向何方,以及為何在應答器停止工作的情況下繼續飛行那么久,眼下還是疑云密布。這些疑點讓一些調查人員提出了失聯航班可能被一些人非法利用的猜測,但對于非法利用的原因,美國官方目前難以給出可能的答案。據一名知情人士透露,這種猜測已上報美國國家安全部門官員和其他部門的高級官員。

這名知情人士表示,美國官員們在一次發布會上表示,調查人員正在積極調查失聯航班被故意改變航向以“在稍后用于其他的目的”的可能性。

截止到3月12日,仍然不明朗的是該架飛機是否降落在其他的機場,或者如果最終墜機,還是在各國集中搜救的幾百英里范圍內。

在上述情況里,機械故障、駕駛員錯誤操作以及一些災難性事故都不會造成重達250噸的飛機無故從雷達中消失。

馬來西亞當地媒體最新披露的消息顯示,馬來西亞警方曾去過至少一位駕駛員的家中。

波音公司和馬來西亞航空公司的人員拒絕對此發表評論。

飛機引擎上的內置監測系統由制造商勞斯萊斯公司(Rolls-RoycePLC)并會定時向地面發送有關引擎條件、運行情況以及飛機飛行的數據包。

目前還未能立刻聯系到勞斯萊斯公司進行采訪。

作為維護協議的一部分,馬來西亞航空公司將其實時引擎數據傳送給了勞斯萊斯公司進行數據分析。這一系統可以對波音777飛機內兩個Trent800引擎的數據進行匯編并傳送操作照片、海拔高度和飛行速度。

據一位熟悉該系統的人士透露,這些數據每三十分鐘就會進行匯編和傳送。據勞斯萊斯網站介紹,這些數據都是自動處理,因此任何一點小的變動都能夠被探測到。

在應答器停止工作之后,目前正在分析引擎數據以斷定飛機的飛行航線。該架飛機原定飛向中國,其最后的確定位置為泰國灣的中間地段。

該架波音777飛機離開吉隆坡后原定飛行五小時,根據飛機的巡行航速,它還可能繼續飛行大約2200海里,到達印度洋、巴基斯坦邊境甚至阿拉伯海地區。

本周三(3月12日)早些時候,中國和越南都表達了對于搜救行動協調不足的憤怒,對于失聯飛機延遲搜救的失望之情也越發強烈。

面對危機,政府內部矛盾和全國性爭論的情況不僅僅只出現在MH370這一事件中,但是一些航空安全專家表示,在國際調查的初步階段就出現政府關于搜救程序的公開不和在近一段時間是很少見的。

盡管在當前范圍內也很難進行有效搜索,當局在周三繼續擴大了搜救范圍,但截至第五天搜救行動仍未有有效信息。

《華爾街日報》證實飛行員可以手動關閉MH370飛機上的應答器。空中災難可能已經將它摧毀。應答器為何如此重要?華爾街日報的杰森貝里尼能夠給我們一個“簡短的回答”。

中國一政府網站也在周三公布了中國衛星拍攝到的三個大型物體漂浮在越南南部8平方英里的海域中的畫面。據該網站介紹,這些物體是在周日被發現的,但未透露是否這些物體已經被取得或接受檢查。

目前已有十個國家參與搜索馬來西亞周圍海域,包括中國、美國和越南。臺灣的艦隊預計于周五到達,印度和日本也同意盡快參與搜救行動。

據參加搜救的國家所提供的公告,一共有56艘船只在馬來西亞的海域參加搜救工作。馬來西亞出的了27艘船只。此外,參加搜救的還有30架固定翼飛機以及至少10架艦載直升機,主要在馬來西亞和越南之間的水域進行搜救。

中國政府尤其感到悲憤。239名乘客中有150多位中國人。在北京,這些乘客的家屬也不時強烈的表達對馬航負責人缺席的失望。

3月12日,十幾名中國外交官在吉隆坡會見馬來西亞當局,目前,失蹤航班仍在緊張搜索之中。

“目前,馬來西亞這邊有許多不同的消息,信息非常混亂,很難進行核實。”外交部發言人秦剛在例行記者招待會上稱:“我們的觀點一直都是,只要有一絲一毫的希望,我們絕不會絕不會放棄。”

前天,中國向馬來西亞施加壓力,責成其加快調查速度。此前,調查由于被錯誤的引導到可疑殘骸和追蹤雷達相沖突的報道上而被耽擱。

3月12日,海軍上將萊明坦(LeMinhThanh)在越南富國島的一次媒體發布會上宣布,根據馬來西亞的有爭議的報告進行的搜尋行動失敗。馬來西亞當局稱,在航班失蹤之前,曾在馬六甲海峽追蹤到該航班。馬來西亞空軍司令羅查理(GenRodzaliDaud)拒絕談論他曾告訴當地媒體軍方雷達曾在馬六甲海峽追蹤到失蹤航班,并稱他們仍在調查一切的可能性。隨后,越南當局繼續進行常規搜尋。

馬來西亞當局將搜尋區域分成若干部分,搜尋區域包括馬來西亞兩側海域和島上陸地。

美國海軍第七艦隊新聞發言人大衛·利維(LtDavidLevy)稱由于所涉及的區域沒有絕對的大小,這次的挑戰非常難協調。他稱,搜尋區域由20英里乘120公里的網格組成。艦船和直升機采用一種徹底的、系統的搜尋模式——就像剪草坪一樣——搜尋失蹤航班。

美國國防部官員試圖淡化一切關于馬來西亞政府正在做欠佳的搜尋工作的建議。

這是一次不同尋常的搜尋行動,需要花很長的時間,尤其在只具備有限數據的情況下。”一位官員稱。

航空專家稱,飛機在從雷達屏幕上消失之前沒有接收到電子信號,使得很難確定可能的失聯地點。一些雷達數據表明,波音777在失聯前,有可能試圖返回吉隆坡,而這個細節讓對飛機的搜救工作在馬來西亞uf半島兩側展開。

美國一架P-3C巡邏機一直在馬拉西亞以西馬六甲海峽北部進行搜索,而“紀德”號和“平克尼”號驅逐艦也已派出直升機向泰國灣以東進行搜素。

截至目前,和其他參與搜救的國家一樣,美國的搜救行動也未取得任何成就。許多航空專家認為各國并未在正確的地點開展搜救行動。即使飛機在空中解體,它也該在海上留下碎片的痕跡。參與搜救各方之間出現的爭議可能讓搜救工作變得更加困難。

1999年,埃及航空公司一架從埃及開入紐約的波音767發生bw墜毀,造成217名乘客死亡。此次事故引發美國和埃及之間的長達數年的爭議。美國國家交通安全委員會(the NationalTransportationSafetyBoard,NTSB)認定,該架飛機的副駕駛故意將這架雙引擎飛機急速俯沖,并阻止機長重新掌控飛機,致使飛機f墜入Nantucket海岸附近的大西洋里。埃及政府堅持有證據證明這是一起機械事故。

幾年以前,美國和法國投入大量的人力調查在1994年美國印弟安納州Roselaw發生的美國老鷹渦輪螺旋槳飛機墜機事件。但是,法方反對NTSB的結論,即法國監管機構沒有采取措施阻止事故的發生。

本周早些時候,馬來西亞調查人員稱,他們在不斷地擴大自己的調查范圍,包括劫持或被破壞的可能性,以及船員和乘客可能的個人或心理問題。但馬來西亞官員沒有討論關于發動機傳輸的問題,也沒有對主要和備份轉發器不工作做出任何解釋。

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