Editor's note: With China's growth slowing, there is much speculation about its future, particularly about whether the country still has untapped potential for economic development. Economic experts share their insights on this issue.
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Opinions |
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Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economistat the World Bank "China still has great economic development potential. In the terms of manufacturing, China is upgrading the economic structure from low-end labor-intensive manufacturing industry to the high-end equipment manufacturing. Though it could potentially be disruptive to growth in the short run, but the transformation will help China achieve sustainable growth in the long run. New industries have also popped up over the last few years such as the Internet, e-commerce, Internet finance, new energy and environment protection, which will become new growth points for China's economy. From a long-term point of view, China has many favorable conditions such as people's high savings, low overall government debt levels and nearly 4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. In all, the Chinese economy has the potential to grow around 8 percent for about 20 years." cntv.com.cn, March 5, 2015 |
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Amitendu Palit, senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore "Innovation is clearly what the Chinese economy needs for its next stage of growth. But it is important to understand the characteristics of innovation that will bring growth. China's focus on becoming an innovation economy by investing in strategic emerging industries is a step in the right direction. But investments in R&D and innovation in these industries, particularly cutting-edge industries such as aerospace, energy-efficient automobiles and biotechnology, are going to yield returns only over a long period of time. It can take up to 15 to 20 years for these industries to produce world class innovative products that can be commercially developed and sold in world markets." [More] |
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Chi Fulin, president of China Institute for Reform and Development "The transition from an economy dominated by manufacturing to one dominated by services will not only help to achieve the 7 percent GDP growth target at a time when exports and investment are losing steam, it will also help China avoid the middle-income trap. The government should prioritize smashing the administrative monopoly and strengthening anti-monopoly reform in the service sector. At the same time, it should loosen the price control system so that the market decides the allocation of resources to the service industry. Enhancing the quality and improving the capacity of the domestic free trade zones, and under the "Belt and Road" Initiative accelerating the construction of bilateral and multilateral trade zones with other countries and regions would also provide boosts for the development of the service industry in China." [More] |
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Yao Shujie, professor of economics at the University of Nottingham "China has huge potential for growth in the coming years. First, political stability is key to the long-term prosperity of the country. The fight against corruption that has won firm support among people will create a sound environment for China’s future development. Second, China's economy develops rapidly and its status in the world economy has been undoubtedly irreplaceable. Actually, China has overtaken the US as the world's largest manufacturing and trading nation in the world. Also in new emerging industries, including high-speed rail, nuclear power, construction, biotechnology, some of China’s technology has attained world-class level, which has laid a solid foundation for the further development of China. Moreover, China has proposed a series of regional development initiatives, including "One belt one road" development strategy and FTA negotiations with other countries to strengthen bilateral ties and enhance regional cooperation. Once these initiatives are realized, they will help unleash tremendous momentum for economic growth for China and the world at large. " Sina blog, March 4, 2015 |
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Zhang Jun, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council "Compared with other latecomer countries, China has its own advantages. First, with a total population of 1.3 billion people, China contends with a huge domestic market that is rapidly growing. Second, although China has faced shortage of rural labor force, the influx of 6 to 7 million college graduates into the job market every year will satisfy an increasing demand for high skilled workers to fuel further growth. In addition, China's manufacturing advantages are conducive to the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements. Over the past three decades, China has achieved enormous economic growth, but its market economy system still has substantial room for improvement. If the reform progress can be made, it will generate a larger dividend for China. Based on these, we have every reason to believe China has the potential to grow between 6 percent and 8 percent during the next 10 to 15 years. " Quotes of speech at National Study Think Tank Forum 2014 on Sept 13, 2014 |
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