波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Brexit unlikely to be a Lehman Bros moment

By Adam Slater (China Daily) Updated: 2016-06-28 10:42

Brexit unlikely to be a Lehman Bros moment

Photo taken on Jan. 29, 2016 shows the UK and EU flags outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.[Photo/Xinhua]

The surprise United Kingdom referendum for Brexit caught markets on the hop. Although some of the initial falls in markets have already been trimmed, market reaction since the referendum is a continuation of the pattern seen in the weeks leading up to the vote, when markets gyrated in line with the shifting fortunes of the "Remain" and "Leave" campaigns.

In our (Oxford Economics) view, these market swings are hard to square with any likely impact on the UK economy from Brexit. The UK accounts for only 3.5 percent of world output, and studies (including our own) looking at the economic impact of Brexit in the UK are mostly arguing about a few percent plus or minus on GDP in the long term.

Market gyrations after the vote encompassed currencies, bank shares and bond markets — in particular, bond spreads in some of the fiscally weaker eurozone states widened notably.

The scale of some of these moves was comparable to those seen during the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, with currency market moves if anything more marked. An important difference, though, is the weakness of some eurozone bond markets; in 2008, bond yields fell across most advanced economies.

How do we interpret this pattern of market moves? It appears that markets are placing considerable weight on the possibility that Brexit is a moment of systemic importance in financial markets. But the nature of the systemic risk is different to 2008. Markets seem to be concerned that the UK vote will trigger some kind of political chain reaction in the rest of the EU that leads to very serious financial instability: either a collapse of the single currency area, a restructuring of "peripheral" eurozone countries' debt, or both.

These are the kinds of things that would need to be on the cards to justify such extreme market moves: it was fears about such outcomes that generated the eurozone financial crisis of 2011-12.

This negative "chain reaction" scenario for the EU has gained credence in recent weeks as signs of public discontent with the EU have appeared in countries beyond the UK, including France, the Netherlands and even Italy. It is also true that the eurozone "peripheral" debt market (encompassing Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal) is large at €3 trillion ($3.31 trillion) so that debt write-downs here would imply heavy losses for global investors. There is also the thorny issue of high bad debts at Italian banks, estimated at €360 billion (18 percent of loans).

But while it is possible to sketch out a scenario in the EU that might justify large market moves like those seen just after the UK referendum result, how likely is such a scenario?

We do not think the risk is very high. A lot would have to go badly wrong at once and there are several points at which crisis risks can be reduced before it becomes irreversibly systemic.

First, the probability of knock-on referendums leading to other EU members exiting is relatively small in our view; apart from anything else, the EU countries will be very keen to avoid this even if it means granting member states significant concessions on issues such as migration/free movement to head off populist sentiment.

Second, even if further referendums go ahead, a leave vote is much less likely than in the UK. As Greece has shown, the belief in a European vision remains very strong in the eurozone periphery, and can outweigh even very strong resentment of austerity.

Third, policymakers have further scope to alleviate financial stress. The European Central Bank showed in 2012 that it is willing to step in to buy up sufficient volumes of sovereign debt to head off an upward spiral in yields. ECB President Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" formula worked in 2012 and there is no reason why it should not work now. There is also scope for fiscal solutions, including increased debt mutualization and the state purchase of bad debt from Italian banks, if necessary. These may have a cost in terms of long-term growth in the rest of the EU but it is not going to be a very large one.

So overall, we see the immediate market moves in response to Brexit as an overreaction. The UK vote is not a "Lehman's moment". It would make sense, nevertheless, for eurozone policymakers in particular to quickly reassure markets about their readiness and capacity to prevent any re-run of the 2011-12 scenario.

The author is lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Most Viewed Today's Top News
...
波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒
久久99国产精品免费| 9.1片黄在线观看| 性猛交ⅹxxx富婆video| 裸体武打性艳史| 日韩一级大片在线| 亚洲欧美日韩国产另类专区| 久久精品国产精品亚洲精品| 超级砰砰砰97免费观看最新一期| 一级黄色毛毛片| 久久久久88色偷偷免费| 午夜av电影一区| 91亚洲精品乱码久久久久久蜜桃| 超薄肉色丝袜一二三| 欧美一级精品在线| 亚洲精品国产高清久久伦理二区| 国产精品伊人色| 久久久精品人妻无码专区| 欧美色视频一区| 国产精品久久久久久户外露出 | 日本在线一级片| 国产精品久久一卡二卡| 久久国产精品免费| 欧美日韩国产一二三区| 日韩欧美一级二级三级久久久| 日本大胆欧美人术艺术动态| 中文字幕一区二区三区人妻在线视频| 亚洲一区电影在线观看| xfplay5566色资源网站| 日本女人性生活视频| 国产精品美女久久久久久| 99国产精品视频免费观看| 亚洲综合久久av一区二区三区| 国产精品免费视频一区| 91丨porny丨国产| 欧美精品1区2区3区| 亚洲人成网站精品片在线观看| 国产成人午夜精品5599| 蜜桃av免费观看| 亚洲日本乱码在线观看| 日韩大尺度视频| 欧美日韩一区精品| 一区二区三区免费网站| 99精品1区2区| 日韩午夜在线影院| 国产成人免费视频网站高清观看视频| 色拍拍在线精品视频8848| 中文字幕av一区二区三区| 国产精品一区在线| 欧美伊人久久久久久午夜久久久久| 亚洲欧洲av在线| 9色porny自拍视频一区二区| 精品国产欧美日韩不卡在线观看| 一区二区国产视频| 免费看污片的网站| 亚洲免费资源在线播放| 在线观看免费视频黄| 久久久777精品电影网影网| 91影院在线免费观看| 日韩欧美亚洲另类制服综合在线 | 欧美一区二区三区免费大片| 韩国理伦片一区二区三区在线播放| 日本一级免费视频| 成人欧美一区二区三区白人 | 久久99深爱久久99精品| 男的操女的网站| 日韩国产精品91| 国产又粗又猛又爽视频| 久久久亚洲精品石原莉奈| 91视频在线观看| 久久久久久一二三区| 永久看看免费大片| 国产日产欧产精品推荐色| 北条麻妃国产九九精品视频| 欧美天堂亚洲电影院在线播放| 麻豆精品蜜桃视频网站| www成人啪啪18软件| 亚洲午夜久久久久久久久电影院 | 首页亚洲欧美制服丝腿| 少妇被躁爽到高潮无码文| 日韩高清欧美激情| 69av视频在线| 精品国产精品一区二区夜夜嗨| 久久99久国产精品黄毛片色诱| 日本久久电影网| 三级一区在线视频先锋| 久久爱www久久做| 欧美伦理电影网| 黄页视频在线91| 欧美一区二区网站| 91丨porny丨在线| 中文字幕av资源一区| 亚洲国产av一区| 亚洲电影一级片| 在线免费视频一区二区| 国产99久久久精品| 精品视频123区在线观看| 粉嫩av一区二区三区| ww亚洲ww在线观看国产| 99视频超级精品| 欧美精彩视频一区二区三区| 三上悠亚影音先锋| 亚洲三级小视频| 黑人狂躁日本娇小| 韩国毛片一区二区三区| 精品国产91乱码一区二区三区| 中文字幕精品视频在线| 中文字幕av在线一区二区三区| 欧洲av一区二区三区| 日韩高清一区在线| 91麻豆精品国产自产在线观看一区 | 日韩欧美www| 成人黄色在线看| 欧美国产1区2区| 九一在线免费观看| 黄色资源网久久资源365| 久久综合99re88久久爱| 青青草福利视频| 蜜臂av日日欢夜夜爽一区| 欧美一卡在线观看| 粉嫩av懂色av蜜臀av分享| 亚洲品质自拍视频网站| 99热精品免费| 99热在这里有精品免费| 亚洲欧美日韩精品久久久久| 91黄色免费看| 色诱av手机版| 亚洲第一久久影院| 宅男噜噜噜66一区二区66| 国产乱了高清露脸对白| 一区二区三区精品视频| 欧美色图天堂网| 年下总裁被打光屁股sp | 成年女人免费视频| 亚洲成人激情社区| 91福利在线播放| 久久久久亚洲av无码网站| 亚洲国产婷婷综合在线精品| 6080日韩午夜伦伦午夜伦| 女同性恋一区二区三区| 人禽交欧美网站| 91麻豆精品国产自产在线| 国产黄色三级网站| 久草这里只有精品视频| 国产日韩精品一区二区三区 | 任我爽在线视频| 成人三级在线视频| 国产欧美精品在线观看| 麻豆精品一区二区三区视频| 91亚洲男人天堂| 五月天久久比比资源色| 欧美tickling挠脚心丨vk| 亚洲天堂美女视频| 精品一区二区三区在线播放视频| 国产欧美精品区一区二区三区| 欧美国产日韩在线观看成人 | 91一区二区三区在线播放| 亚洲成在人线免费| 精品日韩一区二区三区免费视频| 精品熟妇无码av免费久久| 不卡电影免费在线播放一区| 亚洲福利视频导航| 精品国产一区二区三区久久久蜜月 | 美国av一区二区| 欧美国产精品中文字幕| 在线观看亚洲精品| 一级性生活大片| 成人中文字幕电影| 亚洲va天堂va国产va久| 久久久亚洲高清| 91久久精品日日躁夜夜躁欧美| 欧美一级片黄色| 国产成人综合亚洲网站| 亚洲尤物视频在线| 欧美精品久久99久久在免费线 | 高清中文字幕mv的电影| 麻豆freexxxx性91精品| 国产精品久久久久久亚洲伦| 欧美狂野另类xxxxoooo| 精品人体无码一区二区三区| 国产成人精品综合久久久久99 | 青青青视频在线免费观看| 性色av浪潮av| 国产真实乱对白精彩久久| 一区二区三区在线不卡| 久久欧美一区二区| 欧美日韩极品在线观看一区| 超碰人人干人人| fc2成人免费视频| 国产成人免费视频精品含羞草妖精| 亚洲国产综合人成综合网站| 久久精品一区二区三区av| 国产女人18水真多毛片18精品| 丝袜熟女一区二区三区| 粉嫩aⅴ一区二区三区四区五区| 五月天激情小说综合| 国产精品久久久久久户外露出| 日韩三级免费观看| 欧美这里有精品| a4yy欧美一区二区三区| 久久国产精品无码网站|