波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Has two-child policy had the desired effect?

By Stuart Gietel-Basten | China Daily | Updated: 2016-12-08 07:40

Has two-child policy had the desired effect?

Xue yaqing, 6, holds her brother on New Year's Day at No 1 Hospital in Xiangyang, Hubei province. The newborn is the second child of a couple from the city in Central China. [Photo/Xinhua]

As the two-child policy approaches its first birthday, commentators and the Chinese government are looking for evidence to see whether it has had the desired effect: an increase in the birth rate in order to mitigate some of the effects of an aging population.

At first glance, the evidence seems to be promising. It is estimated that there will be around 17.5 million births in 2016. At over one million more than in 2015 one might say the two-child policy has been a success. Without doubt, many couples have seized the opportunity to have a second child, realizing both a personal dream and a favorable outcome for the country. However, there are a few words of caution.

Firstly, as the Year of the Sheep, 2015 was widely perceived to be a not-so-good year to have children. Numerous studies have said the influence of the zodiac is still strong among the Chinese. It is likely, then, that many would-be parents may have simply postponed having children in 2015, choosing instead to have babies in the more favorable Year of the Monkey. Indeed, if we look at the longer-term trends, the number of births in 2015 actually fell from 2014.

Secondly, we still do not know the total impact of what demographers call the "tempo effect". As countries develop and, especially, as educational and employment opportunities for women grow, childbearing tends to be postponed. As this has happened in most low fertility countries, we can expect this to have happened in China, too. The problem, however, is that this effect tends to distort the total fertility rate, usually exaggerating both baby busts and baby booms. Also, simply counting the number of births tells us very little about the birth rate, as this is going to be affected by the number who are "at risk" of having children. In China, of course, this is going to be related not just to being of reproductive age, but also to marital status.

Taking these elements together, therefore, we have to conclude that it is just too soon to say whether or not these changes in family planning are having the desired effect. We will know more in a few more years when we have better period data with which we can identify a trend. In reality, though, it is only when the cohorts born in the 1980s and 1990s have completed their childbearing will we see the true demographic impact of the policy change.

Two final notes of caution. The evidence seems to suggest that changing the family planning policy alone will not be enough to make a significant difference to the fertility rate. As elsewhere in East Asia, concerns about jobs, social welfare, cost of living, housing, kindergarten access, gender equity and so on have as much impact upon the decision to limit childbearing as family planning policy. Alleviating these concerns is critical to increasing China's low fertility rate.

Secondly, it is critical to remember that raising the birth rate alone is not the only answer to managing China's aging population. Indeed, in the short term, it would increase the burden on the working age population by necessitating an increased number school places and the withdrawal of parents from the labor market to care for these children. Rather, China needs to take a holistic approach to this demographic challenge, and will have to deal with both the denominator and the numerator. On the one hand, improving labor productivity, moving up the value chain of innovation, increasing labor force participation, further reforming the State-owned enterprises and developing the global labor supply chain through the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road will be critical to maximizing output. On the other hand, reforming and developing better social welfare systems for the elderly as well as making progress in active aging policies will not only decrease the dependence of the older population, but could also free up the monies accrued as a result of high personal savings rates and, hence, spur domestic consumption.

The author is associate professor of social policy at the University of Oxford.

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
波多野结衣办公室双飞_制服 丝袜 综合 日韩 欧美_网站永久看片免费_欧美一级片在线免费观看_免费视频91蜜桃_精产国品一区二区三区_97超碰免费在线观看_欧美做受喷浆在线观看_国产熟妇搡bbbb搡bbbb_麻豆精品国产传媒
午夜精品一区二区三区免费视频 | 精品亚洲国产成人av制服丝袜| 亚洲欧美激情一区二区三区| 五月天婷婷色综合| 欧美—级在线免费片| 国产在线麻豆精品观看| 国产精品理论在线| 国产偷国产偷亚洲高清人白洁| 激情五月婷婷综合网| 中字幕一区二区三区乱码| 久久女同精品一区二区| 激情深爱一区二区| 制服丨自拍丨欧美丨动漫丨| 国产精品理伦片| 97se亚洲国产综合自在线| 在线视频中文字幕一区二区| 亚洲精品国产高清久久伦理二区| 国模大尺度视频| 69av一区二区三区| 日本麻豆一区二区三区视频| xxxx日本免费| 久久精品人人爽人人爽| 国产成a人亚洲精| 9999热视频| 一区二区三区在线视频播放| 丰满少妇xbxb毛片日本| 日韩欧美国产精品| 国内精品免费**视频| 少妇高潮在线观看| 亚洲欧美一区二区三区久本道91| 成年人性生活视频| 欧美一卡2卡3卡4卡| 国产一区欧美日韩| 日本天堂中文字幕| 亚洲图片欧美视频| 亚洲天堂久久新| 国产欧美视频一区二区三区| av动漫一区二区| 欧美精品一二三区| 国产在线看一区| 日本精品视频一区二区三区| 亚洲成人福利片| 亚洲久久久久久久| 亚洲人成网站精品片在线观看| 精人妻一区二区三区| www久久久久| 99re8在线精品视频免费播放| 91超碰这里只有精品国产| 国内偷窥港台综合视频在线播放| 极品颜值美女露脸啪啪| 午夜久久久久久久久| 69xxx免费| 亚洲精品久久久蜜桃| 国精产品一区一区三区免费视频| 亚洲国产精品成人综合| 亚洲一区和二区| 国产色产综合色产在线视频| 波多野结衣中文字幕在线播放| 日韩一级欧美一级| 成人黄色a**站在线观看| 91精品蜜臀在线一区尤物| 欧美又粗又大又长| 色香色香欲天天天影视综合网| 一区二区三区高清| 免费看裸体网站| 一区二区三区四区高清精品免费观看| 人妻少妇一区二区| 亚洲免费观看高清完整版在线观看熊 | 欧美日韩国产电影| 国产美女一区二区| 欧美日韩aaa| 国产91在线观看丝袜| 91麻豆精品国产自产在线 | 久草精品在线观看| 欧美三级韩国三级日本三斤 | 久久av红桃一区二区禁漫| 亚洲福利视频一区| 久久精品一区二区三区四区五区| 视频在线观看一区| 丁香花五月激情| 久久激情综合网| 欧美日本一区二区在线观看| 丁香啪啪综合成人亚洲小说| 欧美电视剧免费全集观看| 91浏览器在线视频| 中文字幕欧美激情一区| 加勒比一区二区| 亚洲国产视频a| 国产精品国产高清国产| 国产一区二区看久久| 欧美一级黄色录像| 伊人久久久久久久久| 亚洲欧洲99久久| 中国特黄一级片| 免费看日韩精品| 51精品视频一区二区三区| 91热门视频在线观看| 国产精品你懂的在线| 亚洲国产日韩一区无码精品久久久| 性欧美大战久久久久久久久| 色94色欧美sute亚洲13| 国产·精品毛片| 国产午夜精品久久| 国产又粗又猛又爽又黄av| 日韩高清不卡一区| 欧美老人xxxx18| 91美女视频网站| 中国1级黄色片| 精品一区二区三区在线播放 | 欧美精品tushy高清| 91欧美一区二区| 亚洲老妇xxxxxx| 色婷婷综合久色| 不卡av在线网| 中文字幕一区二区三| 999精品在线视频| 国产精品18久久久久久vr| 久久久久久久免费视频了| 91成人在线免费视频| 久久国产综合精品| 欧美成人乱码一区二区三区| 日b视频在线观看| 日本不卡一二三| 欧美大肚乱孕交hd孕妇| 在线免费观看日韩av| 美女脱光内衣内裤视频久久网站 | 91免费看`日韩一区二区| 成人免费在线视频| 日本高清成人免费播放| 色哟哟免费视频| 亚洲超碰97人人做人人爱| 884aa四虎影成人精品一区| 四季av综合网站| 免费欧美高清视频| 2021国产精品久久精品| 亚洲一级片在线播放| 国产麻豆日韩欧美久久| 欧美国产精品v| 国产性xxxx| 日韩av成人网| 视频一区欧美日韩| 精品国产一二三区| 亚洲一二三四五六区| 成人免费观看男女羞羞视频| 亚洲女爱视频在线| 欧美日韩电影一区| 魔女鞋交玉足榨精调教| 国产精品资源在线看| 亚洲欧洲另类国产综合| 欧美视频一区二区| 无码精品一区二区三区在线播放| 蜜臀av一区二区三区| 国产亚洲一区二区三区四区| xxxx日本少妇| xxxxwww一片| 蜜臀av性久久久久蜜臀av麻豆| 久久久www成人免费毛片麻豆| 色欲人妻综合网| 国产a√精品区二区三区四区| 免费高清成人在线| 国产精品日韩精品欧美在线| 欧美午夜精品久久久| 亚洲狠狠婷婷综合久久久久图片| 国产一区在线视频| 亚洲欧美精品午睡沙发| 欧美一区二区久久久| 欧美一区二区三区观看| 中文字幕一二三区| 老司机午夜精品| 《视频一区视频二区| 777xxx欧美| 天堂va蜜桃一区二区三区漫画版| 日韩av在线免费观看不卡| 26uuu国产日韩综合| 亚洲国产精品免费在线观看| 国产大学生视频| 欧美成人性战久久| 人人干在线观看| 欧美夫妇交换xxx| 国产成人一区在线| 午夜影院久久久| 国产欧美综合在线观看第十页| 在线看国产一区二区| 亚洲永久精品ww.7491进入| 丁香另类激情小说| 日韩国产精品大片| 综合激情网...| 精品美女在线播放| 日本韩国一区二区三区| 久久久久久久久久久久| 91视频免费观看| 狠狠色狠狠色合久久伊人| 一区二区三区四区不卡在线 | av在线免费播放网址| 大桥未久恸哭の女教师| 丁香激情综合五月| 乱中年女人伦av一区二区| 一区二区国产盗摄色噜噜| 久久久不卡影院| 日韩欧美国产不卡|